Max Verstappen has emerged as the championship favourite with bookmakers despite sitting 40 points behind Oscar Piastri as Formula 1 enters its final five races.

The four-time world champion’s extraordinary recovery has seen him slash 64 points from his deficit in merely four events, transforming what appeared a lost cause into genuine title contention.

The Dutchman’s resurgence follows a barren spell where he claimed just one victory and two podiums across eleven races before the Dutch Grand Prix, whilst McLaren secured nine wins during that period.

His recent form of three victories in five races, coupled with two second-place finishes, has completely altered the championship dynamics.

Max Verstappen appears to be in the ascendancy

 | 

REUTERS

The momentum shift has been so dramatic that what seemed destined for Woking now appears increasingly uncertain.

The reigning champion now sits just 26 points behind Lando Norris and 40 adrift of Piastri with five grands prix and two sprint races remaining.

His commanding victories in Austin, including both the sprint and main race, have fundamentally shifted the championship narrative.

F1 photographer Kym Illman calculated that should Verstappen triumph in all remaining races, he would overtake Norris regardless of the McLaren driver’s finishing positions.

“He’s now a real threat to take out his fifth World Drivers’ Championship,” Illman observed. “He’s not the favorite, but he’s on a change and if anyone can do it, it’s this man.”

This represents potentially Formula One’s most improbable comeback, as no driver has previously overcome such a substantial deficit to claim the championship.

Red Bull’s remarkable turnaround can be traced to significant technical changes implemented following Laurent Mekies’ arrival.

Max Verstappen dominated the US Grand Prix, winning the race for a record seventh time

 | 

REUTERS

The team has adopted an aggressive approach with their power units, operating at full capacity during Friday practice sessions instead of the conservative 80 per cent threshold previously employed under Christian Horner’s leadership.

“It’s been a huge factor in their jump in performance,” Illman noted, suggesting the previous regime had become “too comfortable, too complacent.”

The strategic shift has delivered spectacular results since Monza, enabling Verstappen to dominate both qualifying and race sessions.

The partnership between Verstappen and Mekies has flourished, with Illman describing their collaboration as focused on “talking engineering” – a marked contrast to Horner’s management style. This technical synergy has proved instrumental in Red Bull’s championship resurgence.

McLaren’s championship aspirations have suffered devastating setbacks through a series of costly blunders.

The Austin Sprint epitomised their struggles when Piastri and Norris collided on the opening lap, eliminating both cars whilst Verstappen dominated proceedings.

Illman, photographing from Turn 1, described capturing the incident as “amazing to capture, but painful for McLaren.” The crowd’s reaction as both drivers returned on scooters symbolised the team’s dramatic momentum loss.

Beyond the Austin catastrophe, McLaren has endured deteriorating pit stop performances and increasing driver errors.

Piastri’s crash in Baku and Norris encountering traffic problems have compounded their difficulties, whilst strategic miscalculations have further eroded their advantage.

Lando Norris finished second to Max Verstappen at the US Grand Prix | REUTERS

These accumulating mistakes have enabled Verstappen’s relentless pursuit, with the Dutchman capitalising ruthlessly on every McLaren misstep to transform the championship battle.

McLaren team principal Andrea Stella maintains optimism despite the shrinking advantage, viewing the remaining races as opportunities to extend their lead.

“The fact that we still have five races plus two sprints means we also have a chance to increase our lead over Max,” Stella told reporters in Austin.

He acknowledged shortcomings from both car and drivers, stating: “I think they themselves know that they could have done a better job in some of the recent races.”

Conversely, Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko believes the pressure has decisively shifted to McLaren.

Lando Norris had started the season as title favourite but is in danger of falling behind third-placed Max Verstappen

 | 

REUTERS

“We clearly have something to lose, but the pressure isn’t on our side and that should also be an advantage,” he insisted.

Marko highlighted the psychological impact, noting: “You can also see it in qualifying that Piastri is making mistakes. And yes, that’s good.”