The 84-year-old disappeared from her home in Arizona one month ago

The search for Nancy Guthrie continues (file image) (Image: Getty)

A former cop has said that Nancy Guthrie “likely died within the first 72 hours” of her disappearance.

Nancy, 84, disappeared from her home in Arizona on February 1. She was last seen at the property on the night of January 31. Authorities have said she was taken from her home against her will.

Michael Gould, a former Nassau County lieutenant and founder of the NYPD’s canine unit, has looked into the Nancy Guthrie case. He previously said that thinks there was an “under 10%” chance that was still alive.

He told The Mirror US that the case is most likely now a recovery mission rather than rescue and has given a rough timeline for when Nancy could have passed away.

“Sadly, my assessment is that Nancy likely died within the first 72 hours and will ultimately be recovered,” Michael said.

“Recovery doesn’t bring closure—it simply removes the uncertainty of not knowing where she is.”

He added that Nancy will likely be found near her home.

“Historically, victims of abductions are frequently found in relatively close proximity, two to five miles. Nancy’s body will likely be found within a few miles of her home.”

A sign where people can leave messages about Nancy Guthrie (file image) (Image: Getty)

Nancy’s health has also been a focus. The mother of journalist Savannah Guthrie took daily medication and Michael that it could be fatal if Nancy were without her pills for more than 24 hours.

“It has now been nearly a month. Nancy was elderly, in poor health, and required life-sustaining medication.”

Despite Gould’s grim assessment, Pima County search teams have refused to scale back their operations, transitioning into a specialized “deep-grid” search of the rugged drainage basins and abandoned structures within a five-mile radius of the Guthrie residence. Law enforcement officials noted that the desert terrain poses significant challenges, with shifting sands and dense cacti potentially obscuring evidence. Local authorities are also utilizing advanced thermal imaging and hyperspectral satellite data provided by federal partners to identify any soil disturbances that might indicate a hidden gravesite or a discarded medical device, as the search for the missing 84-year-old enters its most critical forensic phase.

The emotional weight of the investigation has resonated deeply across Tucson, where a community-led candlelight vigil was held earlier this week to honor Nancy’s legacy. Savannah Guthrie, who has remained on the ground in Arizona, addressed the crowd with a heartbreaking plea for anyone—even those involved—to provide a location. “We just want to bring her home to a place of rest,” she stated, her voice cracking as she stood beside a wall of “Missing” posters. This shift in tone from the family suggests a painful acceptance of the “recovery mission” reality described by experts, though the $1 million reward remains active for any information leading to the discovery of her remains or the identification of the masked suspect.

As the FBI continues to pore over the disabled doorbell camera footage, a new lead has emerged involving a white sedan spotted on a neighbor’s security feed roughly twenty minutes after Nancy’s pacemaker disconnected. While the vehicle’s plates were obscured by the nighttime glare, investigators are working with high-definition enhancement software to determine if the driver matches the physical profile of the individual seen on the Guthrie porch. For now, the case remains a haunting reminder of the vulnerabilities facing the elderly, leaving a family and a nation waiting for a resolution that Michael Gould fears will be more about mourning than a miracle.