Flames leap into an orange sky behind dark bush with a forestry car parked in the foreground.

A bushfire burns at Cape Otway on January 8, 2025. (Supplied: Conservation Ecology Centre)

Summer may be drawing to a close in Australia, but authorities warn the risk of bushfires will remain high in large parts of Victoria, NSW and WA where fuel reduction burning programs could be delayed.

In its latest seasonal bushfire outlook for autumn, the Australian and New Zealand Council for fire and emergency services (AFAC) has identified an increased risk of bushfires in southern, central, and eastern New South Wales, parts of southern Western Australia, and a majority of Victoria over the next three months.

AFAC chief executive Rob Webb said an elevated risk over the coming cooler months came down to an increased long-term dryness, and “persistent soil moisture deficits”.

map of australia showing areas of fire risk in red

Increased risk of fire is shown on the map in red.   (Supplied: AFAC)

“For many parts of southern Australia, autumn sees the gradual reduction in fire risk and opportunities for prescribed burning can increase,” Mr Webb said.

“However, these programs may be delayed in some areas because of the underlying conditions.”

The AFAC Seasonal Bushfire Outlook has assessed fire potential between March and May.

Parts of Victoria have experienced a deluge of rain in recent weeks, with Kyabram in north-central Victoria recording 42.2 millimetres of rain yesterday.

Falls of over 50mm prompted flash flooding warnings in areas including Healesville, Castlemaine and Kyneton on Tuesday.

Despite the wetter weather, Mr Webb said it would take much more to battle the dry.

“Even with the anticipated rains in the south-east in the short term, much more would be required to overcome the long-term moisture deficits,”

he said.

“We ask that communities stay alert throughout autumn and seek the latest advice from their local fire authority.”

Flames burning close to buildings

Flames burn close to buildings in Darlington, in Perth’s eastern suburbs.  (ABC News)

Fatal fire season

Australia’s fatal 2025/2026 bushfire season has been marked by extreme heat across the nation, and bushfires that burned for more than a month.

In Western Australia, two farmers were killed while fighting bushfires in December.

A man in his 60s died while trying to build a fire break around his Ravensthorpe property on WA’s south coast on December 1.

Two weeks later, a 34-year-old farmer was killed when a tree fell on his vehicle while he was helping fire crews battle a bushfire at Mindarabin, in WA’s Great Southern region.

Multiple fires were started across WA in January by 2,500 lightning strikes.

In Victoria, an advice warning remains in place for a 1,231-hectare fire that started last week, north of Woods Point.

More than 400,000 hectares of land has burned across the southern state, including 120,000 hectares in the Walwa-Mt Lawson State Park in early January.

Meanwhile, tourist operators along the Great Ocean Road areas of Lorne, Apollo Bay and the Twelve Apostles are pleading for visitors to return after fires and floods put a dent in trade during summer.

Victoria Deputy Emergency Management Commissioner Brett Boatman said there was a significant amount of dead and dry foliage and grass across the state.

“The risk is not restricted to our forests and national parks,” Mr Boatman said.

“Our message to all Victorians is to be aware of the risk, and to have a plan.”

Mr Boatman said recovery support was still available for people impacted by recent bushfires.

He thanked international crews for their assistance to fire crews across Victoria, as Canadian firefighters were heading back overseas today.