In case you’re new here, Netflix’s hit YA drama-adventure series Outer Banks follows a ruthless group of teenagers known as the “Pogues” through a series of almost endless treasure hunting. Over the last three seasons, we’ve seen John B (played by Chase Stokes), Sarah (Madelyn Cline), Pope (Jonathan Daviss), JJ (Rudy Pankow), Kiara (Madison Bailey), and Cleo (Carlacia Grant) stumble in and out of trouble on their journey to finding the coveted Royal Merchant’s gold and subsequently the El Dorado gold, usually with “Kooks” Rafe (Drew Starkey) and Topper (Austin North) standing in their way.

From searching tirelessly through the streets of the Carolinas to literally deep-diving into the murky waters of hidden caves in the South American jungle, there’s almost nothing the Pogues won’t do to win the “G-game,” even if it means endangering their own lives. With characters who show this level of commitment, it’s no wonder their loyal fan base is also committed to solving every mystery in the show — and obsessing over twisty plot points, even before each season airs.

JACKSON LEE DAVIS/NETFLIX
Many OBX fan theories are running rampant on the internet, and from simple couple pairings — Kiara and JJ marriage speculators, more niche Rafe and Kiara truthers — to siblings twists — Sarah and JJ? — there’s a theory for every fan, OGs to newcomers alike. Since the show’s premiere in 2020, we’ve seen fans create entire hypothetical storylines out of small gestures and predict death dates based on a dearth of outtakes.

With Outer Banks season 4 part 1 arriving on Netflix on October 10, the bubbling anxiety of a new season has created an influx of new theories — and the one gaining the most traction is the hunch that a major character from the main cast will be killed off.

Considering what the OBX crew has endured, it’s honestly shocking and a bit unrealistic that a main character hasn’t died yet. (See: JJ being whacked in the head by a pistol and tumbling over 20,000 feet into the open ocean face first, Sarah being shot in the gut by her brother, etc.) Below, we’ll walk you through six of the most popular and deadly (and most importantly, unconfirmed!) Outer Banks season 4 fan theories, each centered on a different character, and make our own predictions on how much weight they hold.

1. Could this be Rafe Cameron’s redemption arc?

Drew Starkey as Rafe in Outer Banks season 3.JACKSON LEE DAVIS/NETFLIX
This death prediction is a pretty obvious and straightforward theory. Rafe Cameron, eldest brother to Sarah Cameron, has consistently made the Pogues’ lives a living nightmare. From assault to murder, Rafe has done some absolutely despicable things. @sIadesstrokes on X theorized that “S4 Rafe is supposed to be in his redemption arc it’s over,” including a fake funeral “celebration of life” card for him, with his sunrise and sunset listed as “2001-2024.”

With the irreparable damage he’s caused to the Outer Banks community, both in Figure 8 and The Cut, many fans believe this will be the season Rafe finally hangs up his villain top hat and actually works with the main group of characters, which would, according to the theories, then lead to his death. This plotline is very plausible, as it’s in line with how his father Ward died in season 3. Like father, like son?

2. JJ Maybank could die a hero.

Rudy Pankow as JJ in Outer Banks season 3.JACKSON LEE DAVIS/NETFLIX

JJ is the most rambunctious of the Pogues. He is constantly putting his life in danger, sometimes to protect his friends… and sometimes for absolutely no valid reason at all. He’s an adrenaline junkie with a heart of gold, which always screams untimely death in any dramatic story. There are many reasons why fans believe it’s his time to go, even if it’s hard to accept because how beloved he is as a character. “JJ death rumours every damn season since S2 but I fear something is different in the water this time,” @jiarafes wrote on X. “If JJ dies I will hunt Rudy Pankow to the ends of the earth I am so incredibly serious.”

The second half of @jiarafes’s post alludes to the unconfirmed rumors that began swirling in early 2024, that Pankow allegedly wanted out of the popular teen series due to “behind-the-scenes drama.” Since, tons of theories have cropped up that JJ will go out in season 4 doing what he does best: loving and protecting his fellow Pogues. “I just feel like he’s going to sacrifice himself,” speculates Reddit user Jane-23457. In a recent cover story with Cosmopolitan, Pankow himself compared the similarities between Rafe and JJ, making a Romeo and Juliet reference: “When there’s a town with two sides, you’re going to have to pick one.” And we all know how Romeo and Juliet ends. Nothing says P4L (Pogue 4 Life) like dying for your best friends, I guess?

3. Leader John B could become a martyr.

Chase Stokes as John B in Outer Banks season 3.JACKSON LEE DAVIS/NETFLIX

While this theory is on the riskier side, many fans believe it’s the strongest potential outcome. Since season 1 there have been inklings among the OBX fanbase that the show’s leading man John B would die, leaving his “wife” Sarah a widow. In 2021, X user @alvcro shared a video of Sarah and John B together, talking in bed. “You’re not allowed to die,” Sarah says to John B in the clip from season 2. “Oh John B is definitely gonna die at some point on the show it’s OVERRR,” @alvcro captioned the post.

Earlier this year, @madelynssgf posted a couples montage video on X with the caption, “They’ve been foreshadowing John B’s death since the beginning guys.” In the same Cosmopolitan interview as Pankow, Stokes noted that being 32 years old and playing a teenager makes his character’s choices “really hard to relate to at times.” Sounds like this season could offer a window for Stokes/John B to move on — in career for the former, and well, in the afterlife for the latter.

4. Sarah Cameron could be remembered as a beloved wife and Pogue.

Madelyn Cline as Sarah Cameron in Outer Banks season 3.JACKSON LEE DAVIS/NETFLIX
The beloved Kook-turned-Pogue princess Sarah being potentially killed off is a rather controversial death theory. On X, user @jessmdelyn quoted a post that reads “Death tropes where the girl dies just hurt way more than when the guy dies sorry” with a video mashup of Sarah and John B over the last three seasons and the “SOON” emoji. As Sarah is one of the main leads of the show, killing her off would be as monumental to the series as losing John B.

The 19-year-old character has already dealt with so much. Back in season 2, she was shot in the stomach and flatlined for a few moments before coming back to life. The audience has already experienced the feeling of watching her character die, so it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if she were the one to go this season. In a thread on Reddit, user Luv5ixk wrote: “IMO I think one of the main 6 will be killed off… Not to mention, the stakes have been VERY disappointing, so a death would definitely bring back the idea that ‘hey these teenagers actually do face huge problems which affect them and that they can’t just be fine every time.’”

5. Scorned ex-boyfriend Topper Thornton could meet his demise.

Austin North as Topper in Outer Banks season 3.JACKSON LEE DAVIS/NETFLIX

While the Topper death theories aren’t circulating as rapidly as the others, there are a few fans who believe Sarah’s obnoxious ex could kick the bucket in season 4. Theoretically speaking, Topper’s death would be one of the easiest main characters to kill off — or at least, one of the less painful losses for the fanbase. In September 2024, fan account @jiaraxs_ph posted a list of 12 season 4 predictions on X, with no. 6 being “TOPPER WILL DIE.” (The list also included “JIARA WILL KISS 3 TIMES” and “NO BREAKUPS,” which is a hefty ask for a show with so much teen drama.) Topper has gone back and forth between helping and hurting the Pogues on their many quests, so, like Rafe, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he redeemed himself only to die helping them.

6. Could Papa Maybank be a goner?

Gary Weeks as Luke Maybank in Outer Banks season 2.JACKSON LEE DAVIS/NETFLIX
For many fans, JJ’s deadbeat father Luke is considered one of the worst characters on the show. His constant alcohol abuse and physical abuse of his son have led to many issues for JJ, including experiencing homelessness. In season 3, we see Luke disappear on his boat, heading to an undisclosed location to avoid being arrested. This pains JJ but is ultimately for the best, as Luke has never truly been a great father to him. In fan theories thread on Reddit, user No-Examination4007 predicted: “Luke comes back and dies instead.” It’s possible that an arc that potentially endangers JJ’s life in season 4 could serve as a red herring — as the death of his father would be heartbreaking, but not as heartbreaking as saying goodbye to JJ for good.