Two of the biggest and most talked-about albums of 2024 have come from pop artists crossing over into the realm of country music: Beyoncé’s April release, “Cowboy Carter,” and Post Malone’s August LP, “F-1 Trillion.” Beyond the most basic genre-crossing surface similarities, these two records could hardly be more dissimilar in their ambitions and how they’ve been received by radio, critics and different subsets of fans. So how will those differences play out in the upcoming Grammy nominations? And will either of these two superstars be seen by the Recording Academy’s Nashville-centric voters as more of a conquering hero — or unsolicited interloper — than the other?

Here’s a bold prediction: Both “Cowboy Carter” and “F-1 Trillion” will be nominated for country album of the year and make it into the all-genre album of the year category … but it will be based on their appeal to almost completely different blocs of voters.

When the Beyoncé project was first unveiled with a pair of teaser tracks six months ago, the initial response from country radio was guardedly positive. Initial signs were fairly positive for the prospects of the single “Texas Hold ‘Em,” which initially wasn’t going to be promoted to the country format at all, but then did get a push after there was a fast hue and cry over that. But there was also a sense that some of the programmers who were open to it were doing it out of some kind of politeness, or hopefulness… and the song quickly stalled. Some country partisans were adamant that Beyoncé was a potential breath of fresh air in the format, but I think I got more of a taste of the prevailing sentiment when a couple of insiders complained to me that any chart spot that was given to Beyoncé meant that there was one “real” country artist that wouldn’t be getting a shot that week. My response was that, out of dozens of mediocre white men populating the chart in a given year, it wouldn’t hurt to sacrifice just one. But the position was clear, if stated quietly: The country chart should belong solely to those who devote their lives to getting on it.

So when Post Malone came out of the gate months later with his own crossover album, naturally, those same people said he didn’t deserve a radio chart slot over the guys who’d worked long and hard to make it within the genre… right? Of course not — the sentiment was 100% “make room for Posty.” Some found hypocrisy in that and ascribed it to racism, sexism or some combination thereof. But there are additional practical factors on top of whatever institutional bias may exist — like the fact that Malone glad-handed all of Nashville, in contrast to Bey’s fairly transparent attitude of alienation from or at best indifferent attitude to Music City’s institutions. (If she preemptively kept her distance, you could argue she had good reason for that.) Moreover, he invited virtually every major current star to sing on his record… and he didn’t say “This isn’t a country record, this is a Post Malone record.” Bearing those things in mind, it’s little wonder he just got four first-time CMA nominations for his straight-in-the-pocket country album and she got none for her much more artistically adventurous collection.

So when Post Malone came out of the gate months later with his own crossover album, naturally, those same people said he didn’t deserve a radio chart slot over the guys who’d worked long and hard to make it within the genre… right? Of course not — the sentiment was 100% “make room for Posty.” Some found hypocrisy in that and ascribed it to racism, sexism or some combination thereof. But there are additional practical factors on top of whatever institutional bias may exist — like the fact that Malone glad-handed all of Nashville, in contrast to Bey’s fairly transparent attitude of alienation from or at best indifferent attitude to Music City’s institutions. (If she preemptively kept her distance, you could argue she had good reason for that.) Moreover, he invited virtually every major current star to sing on his record… and he didn’t say “This isn’t a country record, this is a Post Malone record.” Bearing those things in mind, it’s little wonder he just got four first-time CMA nominations for his straight-in-the-pocket country album and she got none for her much more artistically adventurous collection.

If every voter in the Nashville wing who just knows somebody who worked on the Post Malone record were to cast a vote for it, it’d probably not just be nominated but win. But the large contingent of Academy members who still hold an idealized vision of what country could be may cast their votes for Beyonce this year, instead of putting in another token bid for Sturgill. While a certifiably cool mainstream act like Chris Stapleton or Lainey Wilson could have enough support from both factions to beat them all, this year’s country fields could still boil down to a fascinating Battle of the Carpetbaggers.